PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Nefarant

0x23f285b8450806371d0be4fade87857979a5c405

Realised P&L
$-1.9k
Volume
$45.3k
Markets traded
2,451
Open portfolio
$59.74

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-4.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded2,451
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration72.5% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.4340.470$43.29+$3.29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.3800.125$16.45$33.55
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? · Yes0.0130.000$0.00$5.00
Will France win on 2026-06-16? · No0.3400.000$0.00$90.00
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 · Over0.4060.000$0.00$100.00
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France0.5600.000$0.00$190.00
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 · Over0.6250.000$0.00$250.00
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? · No0.5020.000$0.00$50.00
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? · Yes0.3400.000$0.00$50.00
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? · Yes0.2800.000$0.00$5.60
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? · Yes0.0620.000$0.00$2.48
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance · Netherlands0.4800.000$0.00$50.00
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? · Yes0.0940.000$0.00$10.00
Harry Kane: 1+ goals · Yes0.5000.000$0.00$100.00
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score · No0.6000.000$0.00$90.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 04:21Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?BUY0.4342462344$40.00
09-11 03:08Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.3799999982$50.00
07-19 21:26Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceBUY0.6674999981$100.00
07-18 21:31France vs. England: Team to WinBUY0.2799999966$40.00
07-18 21:06France vs. England: Team to WinBUY0.56$70.00
07-18 21:05France vs. England: Team to WinBUY0.5699999987$40.00
07-14 18:32France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceBUY0.5599999992$190.00
07-12 03:34Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceSELL0.97$194.64
07-12 03:06Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceBUY0.7474999999$150.00
07-12 03:05Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?SELL0.91$91.00
07-12 03:04Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?SELL0.4053919392$40.54
07-12 03:04Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?SELL0.8625$17.25
07-12 01:13Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5BUY0.625$250.00
07-11 20:51Erling Haaland: 2+ goalsBUY0.1299999929$15.00
07-11 20:40Harry Kane: 1+ goalsBUY0.5$100.00