oidocrop
0x23c46463c281deb26a041fdcc24ae9c5d7629c42
- Realised P&L
- $16.5k
- Volume
- $620.4k
- Markets traded
- 2,697
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded2,697
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration77.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Crazy" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? · Yes | 0.990 | 0.996 | $542.67 | +$3.00 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? · Yes | 0.983 | 0.996 | $238.92 | +$3.12 |
| Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? · Yes | 0.989 | 0.995 | $111.39 | +$0.68 |
| Will Trump say "Shit" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? · Yes | 0.990 | 0.996 | $99.55 | +$0.55 |
| Will Trump say "Shit" in November? · Yes | 0.989 | 0.956 | $83.46 | −$2.91 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.715 | $7.15 | +$0.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$723.09at 0.325Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?
- +$624.32at 0.694Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?
- +$539.13at 0.461Will NightBirds Win Hitpoint Masters 2026 Summer
- +$474.93at 0.598Will Trump say "Go ahead" 3+ times during healthcare event?
- +$416.88at 0.421Will "Motherfucker" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (February 1)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 23:10 | Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.9889325592 | $110.71 |
| 11-01 23:00 | Will Trump say "Shit" in November? | BUY | 0.9888471666 | $86.38 |
| 11-01 23:00 | Will Trump say "Shit" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.99 | $99.00 |
| 11-01 22:59 | Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.9825 | $235.80 |
| 11-01 22:52 | Will Trump say "Crazy" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.99 | $242.67 |
| 11-01 22:52 | Will Trump say "Crazy" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.99 | $297.00 |
| 11-01 22:20 | Will Trump say "Alaska" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.99 | $224.23 |
| 11-01 22:15 | Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.9812781955 | $261.02 |
| 11-01 22:11 | Will Trump say "Cognitive" in November? | BUY | 0.99 | $34.31 |
| 11-01 22:11 | Will Trump say "Cognitive" in November? | BUY | 0.978724 | $97.87 |
| 11-01 00:44 | Will Mclaren Mastercard get pole position at the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.99 | $0.07 |
| 11-01 00:44 | Will Red Bull get pole position at the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.99 | $0.07 |
| 11-01 00:44 | Will Ferrari get pole position at the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.99 | $20.79 |
| 10-31 00:56 | Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in Florida? | BUY | 0.9886956522 | $113.70 |
| 10-31 00:47 | Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Florida? | BUY | 0.98 | $13.46 |