nehocsrizyvqevuidiavaoca
0x23b2360543693d4a78374870f1e98b14e7591a90
- Realised P&L
- $124.39
- Volume
- $20.6k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $932.10
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · No | 0.220 | 0.220 | $485.65 | −$0.19 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.225 | $222.12 | +$4.94 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.129 | 0.135 | $119.06 | +$5.71 |
| Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.205 | $56.25 | +$6.86 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.384 | 0.195 | $25.14 | −$24.30 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.160 | $23.88 | −$4.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$154.53at 0.201Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
- +$33.47at 0.649Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?
- +$24.32at 0.247Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?
- +$-2.20at 0.767Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
- +$-41.37at 0.257Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 09:11 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | SELL | 0.2128837599 | $469.94 |
| 10-15 08:07 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $28.36 |
| 10-15 08:06 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.2054309877 | $26.48 |
| 10-15 07:56 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1285259601 | $113.35 |
| 10-14 13:43 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $71.54 |
| 10-14 13:42 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $84.17 |
| 10-14 13:39 | Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $49.39 |
| 10-14 13:36 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.4534886106 | $168.03 |
| 10-13 17:22 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.134 | $6.70 |
| 10-13 16:48 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.6773417722 | $53.51 |
| 10-13 15:44 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.5621875 | $35.98 |
| 10-13 15:42 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $171.91 |
| 10-13 15:42 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2802652791 | $54.94 |
| 10-13 15:35 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2466605098 | $13.35 |
| 10-13 09:44 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.2769276775 | $135.20 |