MoneyCraft
0x238de3cf57d437768508d5336500624d911d6e99
- Realised P&L
- $-3.4k
- Volume
- $33.0k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $109.29
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration75.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.654 | 0.085 | $109.29 | −$731.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$179.55at 0.751Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
- +$20.45at 0.868Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
- +$18.40at 0.219Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$8.83at 0.049Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.66at 0.716Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 00:57 | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.965 | $50.15 |
| 07-08 00:57 | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.964 | $146.53 |
| 07-08 00:57 | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $72.00 |
| 07-08 00:57 | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.959 | $18.70 |
| 07-06 21:23 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $166.66 |
| 07-06 21:22 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $180.49 |
| 07-02 23:08 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $13.13 |
| 07-02 23:03 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.869 | $173.80 |
| 07-02 23:03 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.868 | $78.12 |
| 07-02 23:03 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.866 | $4.33 |
| 07-02 23:00 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.864 | $10.67 |
| 06-29 03:12 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $158.64 |
| 06-29 03:11 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $11.48 |
| 06-21 14:11 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? | BUY | 0.71 | $71.00 |
| 06-21 14:10 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $23.24 |