VatnikPride
0x23849120e77d90086290922d597dc24b99dc3e0b
- Realised P&L
- $2.8k
- Volume
- $276.1k
- Markets traded
- 235
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded235
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.658Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?
- +$809.38at 0.648Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?
- +$730.99at 0.597Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?
- +$716.49at 0.705Will Sweden join NATO by February 29?
- +$597.76at 0.191Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 10:57 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $305.08 |
| 09-16 10:52 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.02 | $2.40 |
| 09-13 08:17 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.02 | $0.73 |
| 09-11 10:02 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.16 | $9.60 |
| 09-11 09:07 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.19 | $11.28 |
| 09-10 22:05 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $43.20 |
| 09-03 22:48 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 08-31 18:59 | Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $4.40 |
| 08-19 07:37 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $14.00 |
| 07-19 18:30 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $42.02 |
| 07-16 17:44 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $32.66 |
| 07-14 14:46 | Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31? | BUY | 0.95384375 | $183.14 |
| 07-04 13:41 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.57 | $11.94 |
| 06-07 13:43 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | BUY | 0.233 | $3.26 |
| 06-06 19:43 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.67 | $6.70 |