0x2383ab20776e0ab0117d2fd414ca6183ac227e3b
0x2383ab20776e0ab0117d2fd414ca6183ac227e3b
- Realised P&L
- $-10.50
- Volume
- $632.88
- Markets traded
- 97
- Open portfolio
- $8.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded97
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.285 | $4.44 | −$0.54 |
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.560 | 0.954 | $1.70 | +$0.70 |
| Will Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.65? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.320 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $517.50 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.155 | $0.70 | −$0.30 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.185 | $0.62 | −$0.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.48at 0.308S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$8.13at 0.380US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$8.00at 0.389SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 11?
- +$7.67at 0.400SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$7.05at 0.420Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during remarks in New York?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 15:13 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 07:10 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 14? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 22:52 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 02:26 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $517.50 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 18:21 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 10:12 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 00:57 | Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 16:44 | Will Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.65? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:54 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 05:19 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 08:29 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 00:29 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:26 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 07:18 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 23:17 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |