WaterDrinkMike
0x22b6581ad75ab168cec503376767b83cea46a962
- Realised P&L
- $-619.24
- Volume
- $72.6k
- Markets traded
- 326
- Open portfolio
- $402.71
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded326
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sara Nylund be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västernorrland? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.395 | $224.38 | −$65.24 |
| Will Jenny Steen be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County? · Yes | 0.784 | 0.768 | $115.20 | −$2.40 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.775 | $56.76 | +$4.76 |
| Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP? · Yes | 0.454 | 0.180 | $3.97 | −$6.03 |
| Will Sebastian Cehlin be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.049 | $2.41 | −$0.41 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET · Up | 0.506 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET · Down | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET · Down | 0.167 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET · Down | 0.915 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$866.70at 0.174Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
- +$184.04at 0.534Will Centre Party (C) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?
- +$114.44at 0.226Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Sweden?
- +$92.94at 0.103Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Ecuador?
- +$81.75at 0.119Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 20:17 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999963 | $52.00 |
| 10-17 18:52 | Will Christoffer Öqvist be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland? | SELL | 0.999 | $51.95 |
| 09-19 22:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.4299999975 | $22.00 |
| 09-19 21:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET | BUY | 0.9154228853 | $40.00 |
| 09-19 21:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | SELL | 0.96 | $57.80 |
| 09-19 21:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 21:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999776 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 21:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | BUY | 0.4799999846 | $10.00 |
| 09-19 21:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | BUY | 0.4499999843 | $10.00 |
| 09-19 16:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET | BUY | 0.8599999983 | $30.00 |
| 09-19 16:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET | BUY | 0.8499999984 | $26.00 |
| 09-19 16:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET | SELL | 0.33 | $20.17 |
| 09-19 16:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET | BUY | 0.1799999974 | $11.00 |
| 09-19 08:44 | Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.101 | $17.01 |
| 09-19 08:44 | Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.02 | $3.99 |