Alex255385
0x22aa24b58b2db9a1966e7578c9f6edb79f2b0cae
- Realised P&L
- $11.6k
- Volume
- $843.8k
- Markets traded
- 154
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded154
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.5kat 0.184Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
- +$5.8kat 0.388Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?
- +$2.3kat 0.249Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$2.0kat 0.429Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
- +$1.5kat 0.721U.S. agrees to give Saudi Arabia security guarantee by November 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:21 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.2399999998 | $100.00 |
| 11-01 22:15 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | BUY | 0.006 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 21:56 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Michigan and Texas? | BUY | 0.006 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 21:50 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.75 | $1000.00 |
| 11-01 21:48 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.2399999998 | $100.00 |
| 11-01 21:16 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.75 | $1000.00 |
| 11-01 21:04 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.026 | $20.00 |
| 11-01 21:01 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 21:01 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 21:01 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio? | BUY | 0.009 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 20:36 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.011 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 20:35 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 20:33 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan? | BUY | 0.011 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 20:17 | Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.04 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 19:58 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? | BUY | 0.013 | $14.00 |