0x2282A5Df432938249233497348929384202209
0x2282a5df686f9dd2326bba576226850d439273e8
- Realised P&L
- $3.6k
- Volume
- $256.2k
- Markets traded
- 114
- Open portfolio
- $8.2k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded114
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · No | 0.804 | 0.865 | $3.8k | +$267.05 |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? · No | 0.875 | 0.885 | $2.4k | +$26.84 |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.275 | $1.1k | +$62.40 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.581 | $934.61 | −$79.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.492Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
- +$1.2kat 0.544Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
- +$1.0kat 0.781Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
- +$901.62at 0.785Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$699.53at 0.690Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 07:34 | Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats? | SELL | 0.4417371174 | $441.73 |
| 10-30 06:49 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6299277019 | $1.0k |
| 10-29 23:10 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.89 | $534.00 |
| 10-29 17:02 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.89 | $534.00 |
| 10-29 11:48 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.8898168966 | $516.09 |
| 10-28 22:12 | Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? | BUY | 0.4575313636 | $100.66 |
| 10-28 20:21 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.89 | $623.00 |
| 10-28 20:19 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027? | SELL | 0.3518982536 | $92.69 |
| 10-28 17:55 | Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $59.73 |
| 10-28 17:53 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027? | BUY | 0.36 | $84.60 |
| 10-28 08:49 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $234.00 |
| 10-28 08:46 | Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31? | BUY | 0.8524524 | $426.23 |
| 10-28 06:23 | Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31? | BUY | 0.82 | $656.00 |
| 10-28 06:00 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $249.60 |
| 10-27 16:54 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | BUY | 0.5850963889 | $526.59 |