rstk
0x221cf29a86f9457b6f7d1629c3b104906de6cf1a
- Realised P&L
- $2.3k
- Volume
- $75.3k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $66.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.4kat 0.235Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?
- +$368.83at 0.170Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$61.54at 0.308Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
- +$50.93at 0.873Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
- +$49.24at 0.750MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 19:23 | Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 14? | SELL | 0.31 | $46.50 |
| 10-14 12:26 | Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 14? | BUY | 0.1 | $15.00 |
| 10-14 12:26 | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on October 14? | BUY | 0.1399999989 | $15.00 |
| 10-02 12:26 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.1 | $43.83 |
| 10-02 12:25 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.0663713494 | $50.00 |
| 09-11 10:03 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $81.89 |
| 09-07 14:30 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999977 | $48.77 |
| 08-21 14:41 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0466621362 | $17.00 |
| 08-20 10:14 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.239999998 | $80.00 |
| 07-15 10:17 | Will England win on 2026-07-15? | BUY | 0.352499997 | $52.92 |
| 07-14 20:41 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.014999997 | $5.00 |
| 07-14 20:22 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.0275 | $50.00 |
| 07-14 20:21 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-14? | SELL | 0.8625 | $71.17 |
| 07-14 19:23 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-14? | SELL | 0.5175 | $42.70 |
| 07-14 17:08 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.2974999972 | $49.10 |