alligadoor
0x220a789c3e3045a3ce9b8f2b00f7d564a614de1a
- Realised P&L
- $8.78
- Volume
- $2.6k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $311.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat? · Yes | 0.964 | 0.967 | $56.06 | +$0.14 |
| Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026? · No | 0.983 | 0.979 | $55.80 | −$0.23 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-52 House seat? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.959 | $55.59 | −$0.09 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? · No | 0.977 | 0.975 | $52.88 | −$0.11 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MD-03 House seat? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.955 | $46.66 | +$0.24 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · No | 0.983 | 0.980 | $44.22 | −$0.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.63at 0.940Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.50at 0.950Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?
- +$1.04at 0.945Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?
- +$0.89at 0.985Will Yaxel Lendeborg be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?
- +$0.48at 0.936Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-15 13:31 | Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? | BUY | 0.9359999705 | $20.54 |