0x21f625740eabf9c6a6ce86177a8fa58e6595f1c6
0x21f625740eabf9c6a6ce86177a8fa58e6595f1c6
- Realised P&L
- $-4.84
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 120
- Open portfolio
- $63.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded120
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Black Ball win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.720 | $25.26 | +$5.26 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.740 | $10.57 | +$0.57 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.795 | 0.791 | $9.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.379 | 0.413 | $8.73 | +$0.73 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.626 | 0.575 | $6.43 | −$0.57 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.155 | $2.21 | −$0.79 |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.029 | $0.32 | −$5.68 |
| Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.029 | $0.19 | −$2.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.00at 0.280Will F1 be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$9.71at 0.340Will Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?
- +$6.11at 0.450Will "The Secret Agent" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?
- +$6.01at 0.545Will Stephen Root – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?
- +$5.87at 0.630Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 08:17 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.699999965 | $10.00 |
| 10-18 08:17 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.6259999791 | $7.00 |
| 10-18 08:16 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7949999897 | $10.00 |
| 09-26 18:29 | Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.3789999896 | $8.00 |
| 09-14 21:30 | Will Stephen Root – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series? | BUY | 0.5299999667 | $7.00 |
| 09-14 21:28 | Will Riz Ahmed – “Bait” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 09-14 21:25 | Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards? | BUY | 0.4699999796 | $3.00 |
| 09-14 21:23 | Will Shawn Hatosy – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series? | BUY | 0.225999998 | $5.00 |
| 09-14 21:20 | Will Sarah Pidgeon – “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie? | BUY | 0.361999992 | $7.00 |
| 08-22 20:17 | Will The Black Ball win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.5699999926 | $20.00 |
| 08-04 14:31 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999941 | $9.00 |
| 08-02 17:25 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.699999972 | $5.00 |
| 07-26 16:56 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2099999489 | $3.00 |
| 07-26 16:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8289999838 | $5.00 |
| 07-04 21:05 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $9.00 |