bigshort
0x21d5d6326f480863e1d00c5d52bba19d9cec9925
- Realised P&L
- $18.1k
- Volume
- $1.11M
- Markets traded
- 500
- Open portfolio
- $20.8k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded500
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.779 | $7.0k | +$2.5k |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? · No | 0.846 | 0.921 | $3.8k | +$307.63 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? · No | 0.946 | 0.976 | $2.3k | +$69.32 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.221 | $2.0k | −$2.5k |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.849 | 0.935 | $1.7k | +$155.80 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? · Yes | 0.709 | 0.895 | $1.3k | +$261.75 |
| US x China tariff agreement by December 31? · Yes | 0.828 | 0.893 | $1.2k | +$88.30 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.896 | 0.958 | $957.51 | +$61.50 |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.936 | $468.25 | +$18.25 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? · No | 0.660 | 0.942 | $163.93 | +$49.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.9kat 0.905Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$1.6kat 0.959Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?
- +$1.1kat 0.846Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
- +$1.1kat 0.938Netanyahu out by March 31?
- +$960.00at 0.020Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 11:02 | Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? | SELL | 0.968 | $0.10 |
| 08-11 01:49 | Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? | BUY | 0.987 | $303.31 |
| 08-09 05:44 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | BUY | 0.944 | $56.64 |
| 08-07 08:02 | Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by August 31? | BUY | 0.912139312 | $213.19 |
| 08-01 15:51 | Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? | SELL | 0.31 | $217.00 |
| 07-30 05:35 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.968 | $19.36 |
| 07-30 01:31 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.969 | $38.37 |
| 07-29 23:13 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.968 | $252.06 |
| 07-26 07:36 | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? | BUY | 0.9582859046 | $1.2k |
| 07-25 08:57 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $35.60 |
| 07-25 08:56 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $35.60 |
| 07-25 04:57 | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $460.00 |
| 07-25 04:57 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $527.50 |
| 07-25 04:56 | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? | BUY | 0.919 | $104.77 |
| 07-25 04:55 | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? | BUY | 0.919 | $138.77 |