PolyBot

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Traders

0x21C69a157419532d58FcD9a4394bE8489d61Ec98-1777146517484

0x21c69a157419532d58fcd9a4394be8489d61ec98

Realised P&L
$2.2k
Volume
$40.0k
Markets traded
11
Open portfolio
$104.62

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded11
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration83.9% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample5 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration92.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0490.048$96.58$3.41
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0060.001$8.04$91.95
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? · Yes0.5900.000$0.00$100.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.2940.000$0.00$100.00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Yes0.3400.000$0.00$100.00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? · Yes0.1500.000$0.00$100.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-14 07:37Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.0062185208$100.00
05-20 12:43Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.0491799429$100.00
05-19 07:42Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.1316562591$100.00
04-25 20:00Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY0.5899999991$100.00
04-25 19:59Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY0.3399999978$100.00
04-25 19:58Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?BUY0.1499999989$100.00
04-25 19:58Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?BUY0.009245316$100.00
04-25 19:56US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY0.4599999983$100.00
04-25 19:56US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY0.2941753267$100.00
04-25 19:55US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?BUY0.0375847931$100.00
04-08 19:11US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?SELL0.993$2.6k
04-07 14:33US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?BUY0.0387345237$100.00