0x21C69a157419532d58FcD9a4394bE8489d61Ec98-1777146517484
0x21c69a157419532d58fcd9a4394be8489d61ec98
- Realised P&L
- $2.2k
- Volume
- $40.0k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $104.62
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration83.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.048 | $96.58 | −$3.41 |
| Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.001 | $8.04 | −$91.95 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.294 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.039US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$355.73at 0.132Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$117.39at 0.460US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$-100.00at 0.009Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$-100.00at 0.037US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-14 07:37 | Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.0062185208 | $100.00 |
| 05-20 12:43 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.0491799429 | $100.00 |
| 05-19 07:42 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.1316562591 | $100.00 |
| 04-25 20:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.5899999991 | $100.00 |
| 04-25 19:59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.3399999978 | $100.00 |
| 04-25 19:58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY | 0.1499999989 | $100.00 |
| 04-25 19:58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.009245316 | $100.00 |
| 04-25 19:56 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999983 | $100.00 |
| 04-25 19:56 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2941753267 | $100.00 |
| 04-25 19:55 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0375847931 | $100.00 |
| 04-08 19:11 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.993 | $2.6k |
| 04-07 14:33 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.0387345237 | $100.00 |