markisalambert
0x21c3c0076c8e2d16019d3568089f7b472a735654
- Realised P&L
- $-564.71
- Volume
- $13.2k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $171.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat? · Yes | 0.964 | 0.967 | $77.41 | +$0.20 |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.980 | 0.977 | $55.66 | −$0.20 |
| Will the Republican Party win the WI-04 House seat? · No | 0.985 | 0.987 | $34.02 | +$0.05 |
| Hyperbeat FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No | 0.974 | 0.989 | $4.55 | +$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$690.00at 0.500Solana Up or Down on July 11?
- +$660.00at 0.340Guardians vs. Astros
- +$449.78at 0.570ATP Cincinnati - Shelton vs. Lehecka
- +$226.18at 0.570Guardians vs. White Sox
- +$95.00at 0.500XRP Up or Down on July 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 10:52 | Ethereum Up or Down on July 30? | BUY | 0.5 | $91.00 |
| 07-07 12:09 | Phillies vs. Giants | BUY | 0.57 | $114.00 |
| 07-02 07:20 | Guardians vs. Cubs | BUY | 0.41 | $430.91 |