0x2197a61ebd0fd499c85abf141237256a7e605cfd
0x2197a61ebd0fd499c85abf141237256a7e605cfd
- Realised P&L
- $-9.17
- Volume
- $201.03
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $5.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.945 | $3.04 | +$0.95 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30? · No | 0.790 | 0.881 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.660 | $0.82 | −$0.17 |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 24? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.130 | $0.71 | −$1.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.59at 0.319Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?
- +$3.84at 0.358Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?
- +$2.72at 0.440Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of August 17 2026?
- +$2.55at 0.450US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$2.05at 0.510SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 04:35 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 08:31 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 29? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 00:25 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 02:53 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $510 in September? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 08:11 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 21:40 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in September? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 13:39 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 25? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 04:53 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 19:07 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 22:28 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999471 | $2.09 |
| 09-23 14:28 | Will BlackBerry say "Nvidia" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.7199999449 | $2.09 |
| 09-23 06:26 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.4699999483 | $2.09 |
| 09-20 21:42 | Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 24? | BUY | 0.38 | $2.09 |
| 09-19 07:45 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.09 |
| 09-17 21:38 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.6599999305 | $2.09 |