agagyu
0x2136af6ba9332e2947d5c477aa8ab807f64cee56
- Realised P&L
- $32.6k
- Volume
- $1.55M
- Markets traded
- 187
- Open portfolio
- $77.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded187
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.7kat 0.942Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
- +$3.6kat 0.981Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$3.2kat 0.919Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
- +$2.3kat 0.848Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$2.2kat 0.937Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 14:52 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.82 | $1.4k |
| 09-18 14:51 | Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $1.5k |
| 09-18 14:50 | US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $96.30 |
| 09-18 14:11 | Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | SELL | 0.8967253492 | $440.35 |
| 09-18 13:20 | Will Qatar join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.935 | $25.05 |
| 09-18 13:01 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $3.6k |
| 09-18 04:23 | Israeli forces enter Choukine by September 30? | SELL | 0.989 | $9.89 |
| 09-18 00:57 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.61 | $1.0k |
| 09-17 17:31 | Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.94 | $3.1k |
| 09-17 11:36 | Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $188.39 |
| 09-17 11:29 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.944 | $136.88 |
| 09-17 11:29 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.944 | $199.18 |
| 09-17 11:28 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.943 | $94.30 |
| 09-17 11:28 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.944 | $199.18 |
| 09-17 11:28 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.9439221698 | $400.22 |