0x2106bA2AD3136CB58B1688B9b6EE4Bf8C1c7Fa73-1772259511831
0x2106ba2ad3136cb58b1688b9b6ee4bf8c1c7fa73
- Realised P&L
- $-2.1k
- Volume
- $433.0k
- Markets traded
- 338
- Open portfolio
- $687.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded338
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.323 | 0.085 | $434.71 | −$1.2k |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.115 | $132.87 | −$191.13 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.065 | $50.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.050 | $34.13 | −$165.87 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.173 | 0.065 | $30.85 | −$51.15 |
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.009 | $2.88 | −$7.12 |
| Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.001 | $2.50 | −$7.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.048Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$449.55at 0.011Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
- +$341.49at 0.014T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia
- +$285.06at 0.023Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
- +$277.60at 0.167Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 14:06 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET | BUY | 0.2746006887 | $95.38 |
| 07-30 14:01 | Solana Up or Down on July 30? | BUY | 0.1327561278 | $20.00 |
| 07-30 14:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 30? | BUY | 0.032 | $10.00 |
| 07-27 19:40 | Netanyahu out by July 31? | BUY | 0.004 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 19:39 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28? | BUY | 0.0260000002 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 19:39 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? | BUY | 0.007 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 19:38 | Will Libertad Loja win on 2026-07-27? | BUY | 0.1499999887 | $10.00 |
| 07-27 19:38 | Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers | BUY | 0.059999989 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 19:37 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 19:37 | Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0081908882 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 19:33 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | BUY | 0.0295546092 | $10.00 |
| 07-27 19:30 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.21 | $116.67 |
| 06-29 18:36 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0579999973 | $19.00 |
| 06-29 18:34 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.1099999982 | $50.00 |
| 06-29 18:33 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.2 | $72.29 |