7r4d3rdaag
0x20c7aecbd9434a7b7959ad99acc0cf97da1364d4
- Realised P&L
- $16.02
- Volume
- $393.06
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $40.82
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration35.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 23? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.605 | $18.15 | +$3.45 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.258 | $13.65 | −$1.19 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.855 | $4.28 | +$0.13 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.395 | $2.77 | +$0.04 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.050 | $1.25 | −$0.25 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.053 | $0.73 | −$0.03 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.80 |
| Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.96 |
| Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.38at 0.300Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?
- +$10.15at 0.270Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.620Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?
- +$2.05at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?
- +$1.28at 0.734Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 13:49 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $20.70 |
| 10-11 15:06 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.35 | $9.80 |
| 10-04 18:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October? | BUY | 0.72 | $3.60 |
| 10-04 18:05 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 10-04 17:58 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $3.00 |
| 09-30 19:08 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.39 | $2.73 |
| 09-30 19:04 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.056 | $0.77 |
| 09-30 19:02 | Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.38 | $2.66 |
| 09-30 19:01 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.37 | $2.96 |
| 09-30 17:13 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $1.50 |
| 09-29 20:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? | SELL | 0.3398135427 | $3.46 |