Nowayfolding
0x20b382be32a82d308fb9238f3c2a01756385d24c
- Realised P&L
- $90.70
- Volume
- $138.3k
- Markets traded
- 348
- Open portfolio
- $4.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded348
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.514Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?
- +$952.63at 0.317Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week?
- +$661.01at 0.733Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham in August?
- +$534.64at 0.869Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August?
- +$455.47at 0.847Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 22:09 | Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31? | BUY | 0.4322372163 | $142.85 |
| 10-01 20:10 | Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in September? | BUY | 0.967386316 | $179.85 |
| 10-01 20:09 | Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September? | BUY | 0.97 | $17.95 |
| 10-01 20:09 | Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September? | BUY | 0.969 | $31.26 |
| 09-30 09:03 | Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in September? | BUY | 0.95 | $66.50 |
| 09-30 09:02 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.64 | $64.00 |
| 09-23 08:57 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.933 | $186.60 |
| 09-23 08:57 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.933 | $167.94 |
| 09-23 08:39 | Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by December 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $44.14 |
| 09-23 08:39 | Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by October 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $11.69 |
| 09-22 15:48 | Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September? | SELL | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 09-21 17:10 | Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September? | BUY | 0.998 | $49.90 |
| 09-21 17:10 | Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in September? | BUY | 0.12 | $30.00 |
| 09-20 23:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $160.00 |
| 09-20 09:18 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $66.00 |