PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Nowayfolding

0x20b382be32a82d308fb9238f3c2a01756385d24c

Realised P&L
$90.70
Volume
$138.3k
Markets traded
348
Open portfolio
$4.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded348
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration18.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? · No0.8750.964$798.70+$73.06
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? · No0.9310.967$797.05+$29.71
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8370.835$501.00−$1.00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · No0.3000.478$376.07+$140.22
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? · No0.7900.810$328.05+$8.10
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes0.8150.815$326.00+$0.00
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in September? · No0.9630.974$249.13+$2.78
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · No0.6530.795$238.50+$42.50
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No0.9580.999$219.78+$8.98
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31? · No0.4320.505$166.90+$24.05
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes0.5600.625$125.00+$13.00
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September? · No0.9690.980$49.73+$0.51
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · No0.9470.962$48.07+$0.72
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.5400.795$47.70+$15.30
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? · No0.8900.835$33.40−$2.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-01 22:09Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?BUY0.4322372163$142.85
10-01 20:10Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in September?BUY0.967386316$179.85
10-01 20:09Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September?BUY0.97$17.95
10-01 20:09Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September?BUY0.969$31.26
09-30 09:03Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in September?BUY0.95$66.50
09-30 09:02US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?BUY0.64$64.00
09-23 08:57Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?BUY0.933$186.60
09-23 08:57Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?BUY0.933$167.94
09-23 08:39Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by December 31?BUY0.96$44.14
09-23 08:39Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by October 31?BUY0.86$11.69
09-22 15:48Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?SELL0.3$1.50
09-21 17:10Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?BUY0.998$49.90
09-21 17:10Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in September?BUY0.12$30.00
09-20 23:55Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?BUY0.8$160.00
09-20 09:18US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?BUY0.66$66.00