Luckwarmopportunity
0x1fdebc4c21b85746e9faf23ccd4ffad4c67fb559
- Realised P&L
- $23.31
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $257.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No | 0.965 | 0.969 | $57.17 | +$0.24 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? · No | 0.970 | 0.975 | $53.62 | +$0.27 |
| UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? · No | 0.965 | 0.958 | $52.66 | −$0.41 |
| Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.978 | 0.953 | $52.41 | −$1.38 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-16 House seat? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.965 | $33.77 | +$0.53 |
| Will Clavicular be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? · No | 0.978 | 0.970 | $7.62 | −$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.12at 0.960Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026?
- +$2.10at 0.958Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
- +$2.09at 0.962Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$1.79at 0.928Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?
- +$1.49at 0.973Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-15 08:48 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.967 | $21.45 |