lpgb
0x1f5f9fa318fbda8350ac143b4df657287df850fa
- Realised P&L
- $132.3k
- Volume
- $1.55M
- Markets traded
- 3,760
- Open portfolio
- $4.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded3,760
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.2kat 0.258Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
- +$15.3kat 0.270Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
- +$13.3kat 0.052Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$12.7kat 0.380Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
- +$12.2kat 0.200Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 17:07 | Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? | BUY | 0.62 | $124.00 |
| 11-02 17:05 | Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? | BUY | 0.56 | $416.28 |
| 11-02 17:01 | Will Iowa be the closest Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.171 | $1.00 |
| 11-02 17:01 | Will Vox win the most seats in Castellón in the 2026 Spanish general election? | SELL | 0.013 | $0.13 |
| 11-02 17:01 | Will Vox win the most seats in Castellón in the 2026 Spanish general election? | SELL | 0.012 | $0.18 |
| 11-02 17:00 | Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027? | SELL | 0.12 | $1.03 |
| 11-02 17:00 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.76 | $51.46 |
| 11-02 17:00 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $7.15 |
| 11-02 17:00 | Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $57.96 |
| 11-02 16:59 | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? | SELL | 0.391 | $11.69 |
| 11-02 16:59 | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? | SELL | 0.392 | $11.72 |
| 11-02 16:59 | Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of January 2027? | SELL | 0.69 | $13.80 |
| 11-02 16:59 | Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $57.96 |
| 11-02 16:59 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.046 | $3.78 |
| 11-02 16:58 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.045 | $0.85 |