PolyBot

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Traders

lpgb

0x1f5f9fa318fbda8350ac143b4df657287df850fa

Realised P&L
$132.3k
Volume
$1.55M
Markets traded
3,760
Open portfolio
$4.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar8.5%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
CautionMarkets traded3,760
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
BlockerProfit concentration60.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? · No0.4900.485$537.87−$5.54
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat? · No0.8000.775$339.45−$10.95
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? · No0.7800.765$295.27−$5.79
Will the Republican Party win the MI-10 House seat? · No0.7500.740$237.03−$3.20
Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? · No0.1500.145$226.06−$7.80
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat? · No0.5700.565$209.03−$1.85
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? · No0.7350.722$196.99−$3.55
Will Xavier Becerra win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026? · No0.6600.490$122.99−$42.67
Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat? · No0.3900.385$95.84−$1.24
Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · No0.6800.575$84.53−$15.44
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? · No0.0600.055$75.84−$6.89
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement? · No0.6300.620$70.68−$1.14
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Campeche Congress election? · No0.4100.515$61.28+$12.49
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? · No0.0600.045$59.75−$19.92
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%? · No0.8000.785$58.88−$1.13

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-02 17:07Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?BUY0.62$124.00
11-02 17:05Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?BUY0.56$416.28
11-02 17:01Will Iowa be the closest Senate race in 2026?BUY0.171$1.00
11-02 17:01Will Vox win the most seats in Castellón in the 2026 Spanish general election?SELL0.013$0.13
11-02 17:01Will Vox win the most seats in Castellón in the 2026 Spanish general election?SELL0.012$0.18
11-02 17:00Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027?SELL0.12$1.03
11-02 17:00Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?SELL0.76$51.46
11-02 17:00Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?SELL0.77$7.15
11-02 17:00Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?BUY0.09$57.96
11-02 16:59Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?SELL0.391$11.69
11-02 16:59Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?SELL0.392$11.72
11-02 16:59Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of January 2027?SELL0.69$13.80
11-02 16:59Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?BUY0.09$57.96
11-02 16:59Will there be no Hormuz agreement?BUY0.046$3.78
11-02 16:58Will there be no Hormuz agreement?BUY0.045$0.85