archaic
0x1f0a343513aa6060488fabe96960e6d1e177f7aa
- Realised P&L
- $192.8k
- Volume
- $28.45M
- Markets traded
- 2,916
- Open portfolio
- $178.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,916
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration25.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration8.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.5kat 0.879Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
- +$2.8kat 0.986Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?
- +$2.7kat 0.003Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
- +$2.7kat 0.001Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$2.7kat 0.946Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 00:13 | Will United Russia win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections? | BUY | 0.9421327417 | $97.66 |
| 09-16 21:04 | Will Ulises Mejía Haro win the 2027 Zacatecas Governor Election? | BUY | 0.9061832061 | $118.71 |
| 09-16 20:44 | Will Peter Freshney win the next Latrobe mayoral election? | BUY | 0.9019762765 | $184.78 |
| 09-16 20:08 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | BUY | 0.92 | $7.65 |
| 09-16 19:35 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.986 | $2.4k |
| 09-16 14:13 | Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election? | BUY | 0.76 | $4.75 |
| 09-16 04:25 | Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $126.02 |
| 09-16 04:00 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $89.36 |
| 09-16 01:38 | Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election? | BUY | 0.8896543499 | $2.5k |
| 09-16 01:34 | Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $314.52 |
| 09-16 01:33 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.94 | $834.20 |
| 09-16 01:24 | Will Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election? | BUY | 0.71457988 | $262.11 |
| 09-16 01:17 | Will Julieta Ramírez Padilla win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election? | BUY | 0.7 | $172.20 |
| 09-15 23:07 | Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections? | BUY | 0.9462527473 | $173.94 |
| 09-15 22:59 | Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $37.59 |