DavidStonebreaker1
0x1ee0ccc588ad19ecfbcb625108867d6f430bf505
- Realised P&L
- $-12.70
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $12.99
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)7.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be $2.50T or more? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.018 | $8.73 | +$6.24 |
| Will Simone Tebet win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.084 | $3.44 | −$1.75 |
| Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $0.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.063 | $0.06 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.35at 0.106Will Grecia Quiroz win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?
- +$-0.30at 0.155Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on September 30, 2026?
- +$-0.78at 0.037Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
- +$-0.87at 0.099Will Helena da Asatur win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
- +$-0.88at 0.024Will Gleisi win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 05:50 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 09-18 05:50 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | SELL | 0.103 | $1.03 |
| 09-18 05:50 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.079 | $0.79 |
| 09-18 05:50 | Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | SELL | 0.012 | $0.36 |
| 09-18 05:49 | Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.60 |
| 09-18 05:49 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027? | SELL | 0.037 | $0.37 |
| 09-18 05:49 | Will Gleisi win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.08 |
| 09-18 05:46 | Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | SELL | 0.056 | $1.06 |
| 09-18 05:44 | Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026? | SELL | 0.038 | $1.90 |
| 09-18 05:44 | Will Grecia Quiroz win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election? | SELL | 0.146 | $1.46 |
| 09-18 05:43 | Will Helena da Asatur win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election? | SELL | 0.012 | $0.12 |
| 09-12 21:55 | Will Helena da Asatur win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election? | BUY | 0.095487 | $0.95 |
| 09-12 21:54 | Will Gleisi win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election? | BUY | 0.023 | $0.92 |
| 09-12 21:52 | Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 21:49 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $2.10 |