0x1e80eaebb9dfab2edc41530115ea2f535e909750
0x1e80eaebb9dfab2edc41530115ea2f535e909750
- Realised P&L
- $-6.11
- Volume
- $243.62
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $4.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.935 | $2.88 | +$0.88 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $517.50 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.170 | $1.21 | −$0.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$3.83at 0.349Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?
- +$2.74at 0.429Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
- +$2.14at 0.462Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
- +$1.87at 0.522Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 21:38 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $517.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 13:26 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 04:38 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 07:32 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 23:16 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 00:16 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 16:04 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999516 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 07:30 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on September 17? | BUY | 0.5099999516 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 10:48 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 00:25 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999116 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 15:35 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 06:56 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 19:20 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 22:17 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 13:57 | Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August? | BUY | 0.6899999345 | $2.00 |