PolyBot

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Traders

FranDeOrellana

0x1e719289a49c5720bbd5dce8b8408bfd25b339ce

Realised P&L
$1.3k
Volume
$17.6k
Markets traded
88
Open portfolio
$1.2k

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar7.5%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded88
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration11.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration37.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.6640.615$467.83−$37.17
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.4270.385$162.39−$17.61
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.3760.375$139.81−$0.19
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0000.410$125.54+$125.54
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.4150.868$104.52+$54.52
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.5810.575$89.01−$0.99
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes0.2900.285$39.31−$0.69
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.2700.310$34.44+$4.44
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.3300.265$32.12−$7.88
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? · Yes0.2500.125$25.00−$25.00
Will Trump deport 500-600k people? · Yes0.0660.121$18.36+$8.36
Will Trump deport 600-700k people? · Yes0.0720.018$2.41−$7.59
Will Trump deport 700-800k people? · Yes0.0770.014$1.83−$8.17
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? · Yes0.4130.000$0.00−$50.00
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.2060.000$0.00−$20.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-04 20:00Spain snap election called by October 31?BUY0.5960776149$100.00
10-03 23:08Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.4159584039$50.00
10-03 12:20Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.3399999989$50.00
10-03 12:19Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?BUY0.5710066403$40.00
10-03 12:18Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?BUY0.4099999984$50.00
10-03 12:18Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.6599999996$405.00
10-03 10:12Will LPV come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?BUY0.4899999944$20.00
10-03 10:11Will LPV come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?BUY0.46$9.20
10-01 19:43Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.3899999976$50.00
10-01 19:41Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?BUY0.589999998$50.00
09-22 19:43Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?BUY0.2699999978$30.00
09-22 14:05Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.6799999981$100.00
09-22 14:04Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?BUY0.3638878962$30.00
09-22 13:592026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseBUY0.2899999989$40.00
09-20 20:12Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?SELL0.0100642731$0.85