PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

expomax

0x1e6a6623aeb1ac212149b6f496e3d1a4a7519841

Realised P&L
$-861.50
Volume
$170.8k
Markets traded
29
Open portfolio
$1.5k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded29
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration53.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample18 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration50.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes0.2350.235$775.65$0.37
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0190.015$416.30$83.68
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0250.017$246.36$128.93
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes0.5400.525$52.50$1.50
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30? · Yes0.0690.021$37.83$86.24
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.8500.962$11.31+$1.31
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? · Yes0.3550.000$0.00$300.00
Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00$15.29
Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi? · Yes0.1060.000$0.00$143.33
Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi? · Yes0.0030.000$0.00$262.06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$20.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.2930.000$0.00$300.00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? · Yes0.3400.000$0.00$100.00
Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi? · Yes0.0550.000$0.00$119.31

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-15 10:43Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.25$150.00
09-14 10:23Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.24$89.44
09-14 01:48Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.24$28.47
09-13 14:46Netanyahu out by end of 2026?BUY0.54$54.00
09-13 14:26Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.27$1.35
09-13 13:55Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.27$15.09
09-13 13:38Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?BUY0.0480478612$21.73
09-13 13:32Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.27$31.02
09-13 13:14Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.27$71.68
09-08 11:04Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.2199999997$88.98
09-07 09:17Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?BUY0.0768516123$100.00
09-07 09:15Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.2199999995$300.00
09-02 06:29Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0242660859$175.30
08-27 20:24Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0259499759$200.00
08-11 03:48Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0239627657$200.00