PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

michaelcorleone

0x1e1f6f72076ae2e64a163aa94091f174ee8eb832

Realised P&L
$-609.74
Volume
$14.7k
Markets traded
634
Open portfolio
$77.26

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-4.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded634
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration5.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration9.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? · No0.7100.735$7.26+$0.25
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No0.7800.935$6.03+$1.00
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? · No0.7900.945$4.72+$0.78
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.50% and 4.99%? · No0.7800.920$4.72+$0.72
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? · No0.7800.935$4.70+$0.78
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? · No0.7600.930$4.53+$0.83
Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31? · No0.7300.815$4.47+$0.47
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-08 House seat? · No0.8400.905$4.42+$0.32
Bitmine sells any Ethereum in 2026? · No0.7200.795$4.39+$0.41
Spain snap election called in 2026? · No0.7900.865$4.35+$0.38
Will Carolina Panthers win the 2026 NFC South? · No0.8000.775$3.90−$0.13
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? · No0.6400.790$3.82+$0.73
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? · No0.7000.625$3.57−$0.43
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat? · No0.7000.730$3.56+$0.15
Will New Orleans Saints win the 2026 NFC South? · No0.7600.585$3.06−$0.92

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-13 19:13Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0519999999$500.00
05-13 11:17Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18?BUY0.82$12.10
05-12 16:03Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17?BUY0.8$13.77
05-12 16:02Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 13?BUY0.5$19.23
05-12 12:40Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY0.87$4.92
05-12 07:17Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18?BUY0.64$11.96
05-11 16:22Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17?BUY0.73$20.00
05-11 11:05Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in May?BUY0.87$4.36
05-11 11:03Will Estral Esports win CD 2026 Split 1?BUY0.858$4.30
05-11 11:02Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?BUY0.86$4.31
05-11 11:01Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY0.86$4.31
05-11 11:00Will Italy be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?BUY0.87$4.36
05-11 10:57Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 12?BUY0.87$4.35
05-11 10:54Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?BUY0.86$4.30
05-11 10:52Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?BUY0.87$4.35