0x1E13c83d9BbDF8247c0f9e0d3D1A5cee7bD92AC4-1766043683669
0x1e13c83d9bbdf8247c0f9e0d3d1a5cee7bd92ac4
- Realised P&L
- $-2.8k
- Volume
- $107.7k
- Markets traded
- 277
- Open portfolio
- $299.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded277
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? · No | 0.756 | 0.905 | $223.68 | +$36.83 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.301 | 0.075 | $60.35 | −$181.59 |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.018 | $9.29 | −$23.55 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.029 | $6.27 | −$32.24 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? · No | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.07 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.133 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.96 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.71 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.197US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$963.79at 0.190Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$789.98at 0.245Packers vs. Bears
- +$650.23at 0.608Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?
- +$502.26at 0.190Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 07:43 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $100.84 |
| 03-18 07:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3AM ET | BUY | 0.97 | $188.99 |
| 03-18 06:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2AM ET | BUY | 0.18 | $37.40 |
| 03-18 06:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2AM ET | BUY | 0.217762331 | $45.08 |
| 03-17 17:39 | Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | BUY | 0.182 | $17.80 |
| 03-17 17:39 | Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | BUY | 0.19 | $39.91 |
| 03-17 17:37 | Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 03-17 13:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9AM ET | BUY | 0.9351589479 | $173.54 |
| 03-17 13:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down on March 17? | BUY | 0.63 | $9.13 |
| 03-17 13:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down on March 17? | BUY | 0.74 | $5.77 |
| 03-17 13:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9AM ET | BUY | 0.45 | $9.33 |
| 03-17 11:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | BUY | 0.72190478 | $151.63 |
| 03-17 10:07 | Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | BUY | 0.102892615 | $8.35 |
| 03-17 06:58 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | BUY | 0.731 | $153.54 |
| 03-17 06:54 | Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | BUY | 0.2041658732 | $42.88 |