0x1e03803943d35880bb499ec732c54f09e450596f
0x1e03803943d35880bb499ec732c54f09e450596f
- Realised P&L
- $0.59
- Volume
- $6.9k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $107.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.293 | 0.860 | $58.67 | +$38.67 |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.735 | $19.59 | −$0.13 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.540 | $13.05 | +$3.63 |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? · Yes | 0.389 | 0.285 | $7.11 | −$2.60 |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.585 | $4.79 | −$0.20 |
| John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.210 | $4.60 | −$0.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.51at 0.379Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
- +$10.41at 0.480Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$10.00at 0.500Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?
- +$9.87at 0.858US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$8.99at 0.690Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 09:36 | John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31? | BUY | 0.2199999991 | $4.82 |
| 10-14 00:30 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.739999979 | $4.93 |
| 10-14 00:30 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.739999979 | $4.93 |
| 10-14 00:30 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.739999979 | $4.93 |
| 10-14 00:30 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.739999979 | $4.93 |
| 07-17 11:43 | Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.61 | $0.33 |
| 06-24 09:02 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.96 |
| 06-24 06:52 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $5.91 |
| 06-24 02:01 | Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? | SELL | 0.995 | $10.60 |
| 06-24 01:56 | Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? | SELL | 0.995 | $1.77 |
| 06-22 00:03 | Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? | BUY | 0.3899999646 | $4.85 |
| 06-21 15:33 | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? | BUY | 0.8399999865 | $4.97 |
| 06-21 08:40 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $0.05 |
| 06-21 08:34 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $0.09 |
| 06-21 08:34 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $0.03 |