dragonai26novabot
0x1dbec9e993727e5cadbd9ac890ee0ef5bdb6cb59
- Realised P&L
- $0.59
- Volume
- $103.97
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $2.56
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration19.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? · Yes | 0.519 | 0.511 | $2.56 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? · No | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.70 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
| Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? · No | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
| Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
| Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.60at 0.480Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
- +$2.45at 0.510Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
- +$2.29at 0.440US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$2.06at 0.587Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?
- +$2.00at 0.600Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 03:05 | Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? | BUY | 0.519 | $2.60 |
| 10-14 07:11 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.477 | $2.38 |
| 09-30 02:29 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.466 | $2.33 |
| 09-29 05:03 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.042 | $0.21 |
| 09-29 05:03 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.5 | $2.08 |
| 09-29 05:02 | Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? | SELL | 0.58 | $2.90 |
| 09-29 05:02 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $3.45 |
| 09-18 01:20 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5029999154 | $2.10 |
| 08-16 14:01 | Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? | BUY | 0.54 | $2.70 |
| 08-12 10:59 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | BUY | 0.5999999478 | $2.30 |
| 08-04 02:34 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? | BUY | 0.59 | $2.95 |
| 07-31 06:16 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 07-23 03:49 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.4199998616 | $1.70 |
| 07-10 08:17 | Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.55 | $2.75 |
| 06-22 08:07 | Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? | BUY | 0.7299999735 | $2.20 |