0x1ceaebf1d6ada39159780981aefbfdbe5a5c98ee
- Realised P&L
- $-245.25
- Volume
- $104.1k
- Markets traded
- 671
- Open portfolio
- $17.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded671
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.002 | $4.13 | −$6.88 |
| Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.002 | $3.75 | −$6.25 |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.002 | $3.65 | −$6.08 |
| Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.002 | $3.56 | −$5.84 |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.008 | $1.58 | +$0.79 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.187 | 0.207 | $0.62 | +$0.06 |
| Will the Green Party (MP) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.002 | $0.02 | −$0.03 |
| Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$182.58at 0.010Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 11?
- +$112.21at 0.580Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?
- +$46.40at 0.710Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?
- +$40.10at 0.384Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Casper Ruud
- +$30.40at 0.620Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 10:00 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.58 | $154.95 |
| 06-28 09:24 | Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.47 | $49.82 |
| 06-27 09:36 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? | BUY | 0.86 | $109.67 |
| 06-27 09:34 | Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? | BUY | 0.62 | $49.60 |
| 06-21 02:33 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.71 | $113.60 |
| 05-28 20:17 | Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.004 | $7.22 |
| 05-28 04:24 | Will Solana dip to $80 on May 28? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 11:54 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.186 | $0.49 |
| 05-21 11:52 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.186 | $8.90 |
| 05-21 11:51 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.187 | $10.00 |
| 05-18 18:58 | Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | SELL | 0.001 | $0.24 |
| 05-17 23:09 | Will the Green Party (MP) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.23 |
| 05-13 19:16 | Will Solana reach $100 on May 13? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.01 |
| 05-08 23:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $11.00 |
| 05-08 16:13 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10? | BUY | 0.972 | $10.99 |