Big-Filly
0x1ce4fce85485bb75d78efb198a2d2fab4a43fbd1
- Realised P&L
- $22.3k
- Volume
- $2.71M
- Markets traded
- 135
- Open portfolio
- $191.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded135
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? · Yes | 0.990 | 0.997 | $133.0k | +$939.40 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.886 | 0.977 | $57.1k | +$5.3k |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.340 | 0.275 | $1.2k | −$286.76 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.215 | $56.58 | −$43.42 |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.915 | 1.000 | $14.32 | +$1.21 |
| Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.00 |
| Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.85 |
| Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.30 |
| Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.4kat 0.946Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?
- +$5.3kat 0.894Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January?
- +$4.8kat 0.973Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$3.3kat 0.970Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
- +$3.0kat 0.96676ers vs. Nets
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 04:34 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.34 | $1.5k |
| 10-24 15:45 | Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.21 | $38.85 |
| 10-24 15:41 | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.16 | $16.00 |
| 10-24 15:37 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.47 | $37.40 |
| 10-24 15:36 | Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.43 | $40.85 |
| 10-24 15:08 | Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 23:33 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.29 | $100.00 |
| 10-03 14:50 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.6 | $37.87 |
| 10-03 14:48 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.6 | $60.01 |
| 10-03 14:47 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.974 | $100.00 |
| 10-01 19:01 | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.916 | $13.11 |
| 10-01 18:56 | Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | BUY | 0.9899598401 | $132.1k |
| 09-15 03:01 | Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.0011364167 | $0.14 |
| 09-09 11:12 | Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.49 | $102.90 |
| 09-09 11:11 | Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.85 | $102.00 |