0x1BEDe7F78ec054d6A6e533e4C54641aDBf316AfA-1767796589212
0x1bede7f78ec054d6a6e533e4c54641adbf316afa
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $17.0k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $3.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration75.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.583 | 0.655 | $2.8k | +$309.75 |
| Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? · Yes | 0.201 | 0.180 | $448.08 | −$51.92 |
| Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? · Yes | 0.273 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$252.10at 0.197Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- +$47.38at 0.678Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
- +$33.80at 0.760Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
- +$1.60at 0.920Will Zack Polanski – Green Party win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
- +$-500.00at 0.648Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 13:10 | Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | BUY | 0.2008590192 | $500.00 |
| 08-15 17:40 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5580683022 | $500.00 |
| 08-15 07:41 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5699999998 | $1000.00 |
| 08-08 18:11 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999999 | $1000.00 |
| 07-27 18:26 | Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.08 | $50.00 |
| 07-21 18:51 | Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.1287944816 | $50.00 |
| 07-20 19:35 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.2727727616 | $100.00 |
| 07-16 07:07 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | SELL | 0.3257222358 | $106.52 |
| 07-15 12:57 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | SELL | 0.322602332 | $316.51 |
| 07-15 05:54 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | SELL | 0.2807446031 | $367.26 |
| 06-04 18:55 | Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | SELL | 0.8922942428 | $234.81 |
| 06-01 12:55 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.1911079022 | $500.00 |
| 03-12 09:39 | Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | BUY | 0.7599999974 | $200.00 |
| 01-28 19:57 | Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6482463452 | $500.00 |
| 01-28 19:50 | Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | BUY | 0.6784990434 | $100.00 |