PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x1bC3f6E0F418769932B364cF586e7F7668dB8548-1766006288820

0x1bc3f6e0f418769932b364cf586e7f7668db8548

Realised P&L
$3.0k
Volume
$283.1k
Markets traded
75
Open portfolio
$75.01

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded75
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration31.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration83.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1601.000$62.50+$52.50
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.2900.210$7.26$2.74
Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch? · Yes0.5000.075$1.50$8.50
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.4700.065$1.38$8.62
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.8200.924$1.13+$0.13
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No0.9000.816$0.91$0.09
Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch? · Yes0.1200.055$0.33$0.39
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? · Yes0.4550.000$0.00$1.6k
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes0.2900.000$0.00$944.35
Superform FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes0.0500.000$0.00$149.74
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00$2.99
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00$2.1k
Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes0.2160.000$0.00$1.4k
Over $2M committed to the Pharos public sale? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$6.65
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? · Yes0.2950.000$0.00$295.38

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
04-30 13:56Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?SELL0.7924963383$86.57
04-30 13:56Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?SELL0.0012718346$8.63
04-29 13:28Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?BUY0.2889791679$301.85
04-29 12:58Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch?SELL0.1300397333$328.26
04-29 10:17Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?BUY0.0649363762$46.95
04-29 09:46Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.1455528655$272.16
04-29 09:43Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.144$251.87
04-29 09:41Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.1119973889$343.15
04-29 08:54Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch?BUY0.1984672197$453.57
04-27 13:22Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL0.52$312.00
04-27 13:08Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY0.53$265.00
04-27 12:55Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY0.53$53.00
04-27 12:04Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?SELL0.93$102.30
04-27 11:58Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?BUY0.94$94.00
04-26 15:32US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL0.4605630769$239.49