PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

thelighthouse1337

0x1bbd4be39595b8a2ba03895f38c3f471b4673bed

Realised P&L
$-10.8k
Volume
$541.4k
Markets traded
11,366
Open portfolio
$19.05

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded11,366
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
CautionProfit concentration47.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%? · Yes0.5500.045$4.86$54.54
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? · No0.6800.560$2.80$0.60
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? · Yes0.4000.660$2.76+$1.09
Will Otto Lopez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season? · Yes0.2990.037$2.48$17.32
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026? · No0.5600.033$1.52$24.24
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? · No0.5700.855$1.50+$0.50
Will Luis Arraez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season? · Yes0.3800.740$0.74+$0.36
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be at least $542,000 on September 30? · Yes0.5000.013$0.63$24.38
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026? · Yes0.5800.235$0.52$0.77
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos be the top Spotify album for 2026? · No0.2800.155$0.31$0.25
Will CJ Abrams lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? · Yes0.3250.066$0.30$1.20
Will Matt Olson hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? · No0.4500.225$0.23$0.23
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? · Yes0.1160.003$0.15$5.65
Will Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election? · No0.5300.045$0.12$1.28
Will Milly Alcock be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? · Yes0.3100.004$0.07$6.13

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-27 04:45FC Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: 2nd Half O/U 0.5BUY0.1846201538$10.00
08-27 03:25Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 11PM ETBUY0.84$2.00
08-25 21:24Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ETBUY0.8299996566$1.74
08-25 21:24Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ETBUY0.8099999435$1.72
08-25 21:23Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ETBUY0.7599999038$1.58
08-25 21:23Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ETBUY0.7299996943$1.60
08-25 21:22Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ETBUY0.8299999623$1.76
08-25 21:22Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ETBUY0.8099999674$1.74
08-25 21:21Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ETBUY0.7899999374$1.64
08-25 21:20Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ETBUY0.729999984$1.82
08-25 20:54Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ETBUY0.9299999905$1.96
08-25 20:54Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ETBUY0.94$1.96
08-25 20:53Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ETBUY0.95$1.98
08-25 20:53Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ETBUY0.9$1.90
08-25 20:52Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ETBUY0.8599999713$1.80