0x1b3eb4c1c39b06eeca5f59fc0bc4e392fdc416a4
- Realised P&L
- $92.50
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $33.20
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.169 | 0.248 | $29.35 | +$9.35 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? · Yes | 0.233 | 0.058 | $2.49 | −$7.51 |
| Will Democrats win the Texas Governor election and Republicans win the Texas Senate election? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.043 | $1.15 | +$0.11 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.007 | $0.21 | −$1.35 |
| Will Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? · Yes | 0.264 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.31at 0.037Will Trump visit China by March 31?
- +$18.62at 0.128Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?
- +$8.90at 0.890Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$6.67at 0.090Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?
- +$2.54at 0.130Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 14:35 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.1689999934 | $20.00 |
| 08-17 04:22 | Will Democrats win the Texas Governor election and Republicans win the Texas Senate election? | BUY | 0.0383703704 | $1.04 |
| 08-14 07:22 | Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%? | BUY | 0.0528813559 | $1.56 |
| 06-25 12:54 | Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%? | SELL | 0.48 | $16.25 |
| 06-10 12:30 | Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%? | SELL | 0.3293169957 | $14.51 |
| 04-26 07:42 | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? | BUY | 0.2325353997 | $10.00 |
| 04-24 05:45 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $1.70 |
| 04-22 05:56 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.0088408645 | $5.00 |
| 04-16 07:47 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.163 | $12.54 |
| 03-30 08:08 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | BUY | 0.2639270309 | $20.00 |
| 03-24 00:13 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | BUY | 0.29999997 | $5.00 |
| 03-22 07:52 | Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? | SELL | 0.21 | $11.67 |
| 03-06 14:51 | US forces enter Iran by March 14? | BUY | 0.1299999789 | $5.00 |
| 02-24 12:22 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | SELL | 0.742219707 | $101.31 |
| 02-15 02:48 | Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? | BUY | 0.0899999845 | $5.00 |