Horacesss
0x1b39d1a1d2ef9560f4c4fd221bca44259305850e
- Realised P&L
- $-353.30
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $17.56
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-16.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.760 | $17.56 | +$1.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.47at 0.969Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15?
- +$-2.40at 0.101Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 25?
- +$-11.32at 0.769Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17?
- +$-359.34at 0.909Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 12:38 | Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record? | BUY | 0.68 | $15.71 |
| 06-24 07:59 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 25? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.51 |
| 06-24 07:24 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 25? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.18 |
| 06-16 04:19 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? | SELL | 0.1121210977 | $50.50 |
| 06-15 06:52 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? | BUY | 0.89 | $10.23 |
| 06-15 06:50 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? | BUY | 0.88 | $48.40 |
| 06-15 06:46 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? | SELL | 0.6564826982 | $59.95 |
| 06-15 06:14 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? | BUY | 0.76 | $31.94 |
| 06-15 06:10 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? | SELL | 0.94 | $31.96 |
| 06-15 05:48 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? | BUY | 0.76 | $37.47 |
| 06-15 05:26 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? | SELL | 0.94 | $38.54 |
| 06-14 22:54 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? | BUY | 0.9087303882 | $417.00 |
| 06-14 22:51 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? | SELL | 0.995 | $411.20 |
| 06-14 13:08 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? | BUY | 0.9678706844 | $400.00 |