0x1AD805D2452712DfF29318b60C8089bb116Ab605-1787868278383
0x1ad805d2452712dff29318b60c8089bb116ab605
- Realised P&L
- $130.34
- Volume
- $3.4k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? · Yes | 0.487 | 0.600 | $611.46 | +$115.31 |
| Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? · No | 0.528 | 0.620 | $532.86 | +$79.17 |
| Lula participates in debate before first round? · No | 0.549 | 0.640 | $232.43 | +$33.19 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? · Yes | 0.436 | 0.175 | $70.37 | −$104.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.61at 0.311Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$0.22at 0.155Will Aécio Neves win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?
- +$-0.06at 0.880Will Aécio Neves win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?
- +$-4.94at 0.109Will Aécio Neves win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 21:07 | Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.4 | $21.84 |
| 09-16 18:12 | Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.4 | $32.00 |
| 09-16 04:47 | Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.27 | $5.40 |
| 09-02 17:46 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.43 | $21.50 |
| 09-02 16:46 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.44 | $22.00 |
| 09-02 15:39 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.44 | $10.56 |
| 09-02 15:39 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.46 | $23.00 |
| 09-02 15:11 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | BUY | 0.39 | $13.65 |
| 09-02 14:59 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.46 | $32.20 |
| 09-02 14:54 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.43 | $33.54 |
| 09-02 14:35 | Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.5 | $35.00 |
| 09-02 14:33 | Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.4709910803 | $47.52 |
| 09-02 14:28 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.3556034483 | $41.25 |
| 09-01 17:32 | Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.52875 | $21.15 |
| 09-01 17:28 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.53 | $10.60 |