HardOrHome
0x1acd9431889d302d0c9e1b4dadc78b9efaf8c664
- Realised P&L
- $692.83
- Volume
- $198.2k
- Markets traded
- 135
- Open portfolio
- $71.56
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded135
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bodø/Glimt win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.003 | $25.83 | −$5.16 |
| Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.165 | $22.87 | −$43.66 |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.038 | $7.70 | −$12.30 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.038 | $7.70 | −$24.30 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.010 | $6.00 | −$28.20 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.049 | $1.46 | −$1.25 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Spread: Norway (-2.5) · Norway | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$54.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$710.00at 0.112Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24?
- +$375.69at 0.586Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20?
- +$223.60at 0.008Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?
- +$161.50at 0.010Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
- +$158.00at 0.210Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 18:22 | Will Bodø/Glimt win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.003 | $31.00 |
| 07-10 21:10 | Spread: Norway (-2.5) | BUY | 0.0269999974 | $10.00 |
| 07-07 16:47 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.0660284469 | $44.10 |
| 07-05 21:02 | Spread: Norway (-2.5) | BUY | 0.005 | $1.07 |
| 07-05 21:01 | Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $0.24 |
| 06-06 21:42 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.027 | $93.48 |
| 06-06 21:41 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.027 | $2.70 |
| 05-29 16:04 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | SELL | 0.024 | $14.40 |
| 05-29 05:05 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | BUY | 0.003 | $13.41 |
| 05-29 05:04 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 05-29 05:03 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY | 0.02 | $12.00 |
| 05-22 12:39 | Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? | SELL | 0.08 | $16.00 |
| 05-22 12:10 | Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? | SELL | 0.06 | $12.00 |
| 05-22 12:10 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | SELL | 0.005 | $1.08 |
| 05-22 12:09 | GTA VI released before June 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $8.11 |