PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

HardOrHome

0x1acd9431889d302d0c9e1b4dadc78b9efaf8c664

Realised P&L
$692.83
Volume
$198.2k
Markets traded
135
Open portfolio
$71.56

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded135
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration50.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bodø/Glimt win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes0.0030.003$25.83−$5.16
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? · Yes0.4800.165$22.87−$43.66
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · Yes0.1000.038$7.70−$12.30
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.1600.038$7.70−$24.30
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · Yes0.0570.010$6.00−$28.20
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes0.0900.049$1.46−$1.25
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00−$10.00
Spread: Norway (-2.5) · Norway0.0270.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0270.000$0.00−$54.10

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-15 18:22Will Bodø/Glimt win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?BUY0.003$31.00
07-10 21:10Spread: Norway (-2.5)BUY0.0269999974$10.00
07-07 16:47Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.0660284469$44.10
07-05 21:02Spread: Norway (-2.5)BUY0.005$1.07
07-05 21:01Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?SELL0.17$0.24
06-06 21:42Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.027$93.48
06-06 21:41Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.027$2.70
05-29 16:04Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?SELL0.024$14.40
05-29 05:05Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?BUY0.003$13.41
05-29 05:04Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?BUY0.1$10.00
05-29 05:03Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?BUY0.02$12.00
05-22 12:39Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? SELL0.08$16.00
05-22 12:10Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?SELL0.06$12.00
05-22 12:10Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?SELL0.005$1.08
05-22 12:09GTA VI released before June 2026?SELL0.002$8.11