HardOrHome
0x1acd9431889d302d0c9e1b4dadc78b9efaf8c664
- Realised P&L
- $658.25
- Volume
- $187.8k
- Markets traded
- 134
- Open portfolio
- $78.99
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded134
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.255 | $35.34 | −$31.18 |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.068 | $13.60 | −$6.40 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.022 | $13.50 | −$20.70 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.065 | $13.00 | −$19.00 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.019 | $1.90 | −$8.10 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.055 | $1.65 | −$1.05 |
| Spread: Norway (-2.5) · Norway | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$54.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$710.00at 0.112Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24?
- +$375.69at 0.586Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20?
- +$223.60at 0.008Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?
- +$161.50at 0.010Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
- +$158.00at 0.210Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 21:10 | Spread: Norway (-2.5) | BUY | 0.0269999974 | $10.00 |
| 07-07 16:47 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.0660284469 | $44.10 |
| 07-05 21:02 | Spread: Norway (-2.5) | BUY | 0.005 | $1.07 |
| 07-05 21:01 | Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $0.24 |
| 06-06 21:42 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.027 | $93.48 |
| 06-06 21:41 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.027 | $2.70 |
| 05-29 16:04 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | SELL | 0.024 | $14.40 |
| 05-29 05:05 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | BUY | 0.003 | $13.41 |
| 05-29 05:04 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 05-29 05:03 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY | 0.02 | $12.00 |
| 05-22 12:39 | Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? | SELL | 0.08 | $16.00 |
| 05-22 12:10 | Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? | SELL | 0.06 | $12.00 |
| 05-22 12:10 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | SELL | 0.005 | $1.08 |
| 05-22 12:09 | GTA VI released before June 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $8.11 |
| 04-29 16:02 | GTA VI released before June 2026? | BUY | 0.012334241 | $50.00 |