0x19f67a6f7748c08b93776579919949f32fd56b82
0x19f67a6f7748c08b93776579919949f32fd56b82
- Realised P&L
- $-70.73
- Volume
- $831.23
- Markets traded
- 106
- Open portfolio
- $7.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded106
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? · No | 0.660 | 0.870 | $1.32 | +$0.32 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.515 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.760 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will Ally (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.620 | 0.625 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.286 | $0.95 | −$0.04 |
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.195 | $0.75 | −$0.25 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.022 | $0.61 | −$5.39 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? · No | 0.210 | 0.045 | $0.27 | −$1.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.98at 0.341Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$5.76at 0.510US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$5.74at 0.490Will Boeing say "Guidance" during earnings call?
- +$5.47at 0.502Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?
- +$5.40at 0.400Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 13:11 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 05:11 | Will Ally (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 19:34 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 10:58 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 01:30 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 13:01 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 04:41 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 20:39 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 12:36 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 04:34 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 20:34 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:25 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 13:29 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2019999612 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 17:25 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 07:56 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |