0x19aF1E2d0289cdbD0cbf0922D70d11B2D65Edd83-1746801833868
0x19af1e2d0289cdbd0cbf0922d70d11b2d65edd83
- Realised P&L
- $-424.35
- Volume
- $62.5k
- Markets traded
- 304
- Open portfolio
- $15.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded304
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$613.63at 0.418Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$476.78at 0.075Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?
- +$195.11at 0.194Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?
- +$122.63at 0.486Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12?
- +$122.28at 0.548Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 20:46 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999993 | $10.00 |
| 09-23 17:38 | Will Trump say "Taiwan" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.0450621064 | $1.50 |
| 09-23 17:38 | Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.00 |
| 09-23 17:37 | Will Trump say "Fake News" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.0899999989 | $4.00 |
| 09-23 17:37 | Will Trump say "Ballroom" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 06:49 | Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.175 | $9.41 |
| 09-22 07:15 | Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | BUY | 0.1859999995 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 07:14 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3124349882 | $4.13 |
| 09-21 14:48 | Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.291172495 | $24.73 |
| 09-17 14:36 | Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | BUY | 0.1285636653 | $10.92 |
| 06-07 14:51 | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.2092716042 | $17.00 |
| 03-15 06:50 | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.0999023561 | $62.37 |
| 12-19 07:29 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? | BUY | 0.3439999868 | $10.46 |
| 12-16 13:46 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? | BUY | 0.9549999995 | $9.99 |
| 12-13 06:52 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? | BUY | 0.1499999972 | $40.00 |