PolyBot

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Traders

Ale8cc

0x1994a0262b87fb5401967b027f76dfd5c42ab4e5

Realised P&L
$-4.0k
Volume
$126.9k
Markets traded
190
Open portfolio
$1.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded190
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration25.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration50.8% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? · Yes0.3340.375$855.66+$93.31
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.2170.041$313.64$1.4k
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.1420.045$172.26$371.88
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? · Yes0.0870.105$79.58+$13.93
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes0.1810.065$73.43$131.61
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.4910.543$54.30+$5.20
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? · Yes0.2790.125$42.50$52.40
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? · No0.6680.870$36.66+$8.50
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes0.3070.140$24.15$28.80
UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) · Mauricio Ruffy0.2650.265$20.41+$0.01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.0340.029$7.38$1.13
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.0800.065$4.55$1.05
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.1070.005$1.15$23.45
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? · Yes0.2500.000$0.00$15.34
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.2300.000$0.00$6.57

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 20:22Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?BUY0.38$38.97
09-15 20:54Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?BUY0.08$23.92
09-12 23:45UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)BUY0.269999993$10.00
09-12 18:57Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?SELL0.1$0.90
09-12 18:56Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?SELL0.1$7.00
09-10 18:30Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?SELL0.003$0.21
09-10 02:00Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?BUY0.84$4.99
09-09 16:19Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?SELL0.2$10.00
09-09 12:11Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?SELL0.2$6.00
09-08 17:36Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?SELL0.12$6.00
09-07 19:32Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?SELL0.1196275$9.57
09-05 21:44UFC Fight Night: Dan Hooker vs. Salahdine Parnasse (Lightweight, Main Card)BUY0.21$4.37
09-04 15:53Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.025$78.73
08-31 01:12US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?BUY0.028$4.20
08-27 01:14Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?BUY0.0699999874$5.00