Guthix481
0x18da709442072c117380d5e2ce889776586e91c4
- Realised P&L
- $-183.81
- Volume
- $30.5k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $151.04
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration82.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.056 | $129.66 | −$70.33 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.036 | $15.67 | −$6.33 |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.034 | $4.53 | −$15.47 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.055 | $1.17 | −$8.83 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on August 4? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 24? · Up | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$99.75at 0.167Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?
- +$21.25at 0.320US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
- +$-5.00at 0.054Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?
- +$-10.00at 0.110Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
- +$-10.00at 0.164Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 18:16 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0229999999 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 18:10 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September? | BUY | 0.0544397201 | $30.00 |
| 09-03 10:56 | Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.149999994 | $20.00 |
| 09-03 10:48 | Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? | BUY | 0.0605711541 | $25.00 |
| 09-02 19:27 | Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? | BUY | 0.0692921104 | $45.00 |
| 09-02 17:11 | Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? | BUY | 0.10018813 | $80.00 |
| 09-02 16:01 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September? | BUY | 0.0285452598 | $20.00 |
| 09-02 15:58 | Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? | BUY | 0.1099560158 | $50.00 |
| 08-04 16:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $10.00 |
| 08-04 16:25 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on August 4? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 13:58 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? | BUY | 0.0727272727 | $20.00 |
| 08-04 13:56 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.4705882353 | $10.00 |
| 07-24 14:53 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 24? | BUY | 0.0699999969 | $20.00 |
| 07-24 14:47 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.058404392 | $20.00 |
| 07-24 14:41 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | BUY | 0.1899999939 | $20.00 |