0x18C0ADe42F81AAb5536805207f2502b7EC9E8B49-1776728104541
0x18c0ade42f81aab5536805207f2502b7ec9e8b49
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $4.2k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $8.77
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar27.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration96.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.007 | $7.93 | −$2.07 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in September? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.030 | $0.84 | −$0.16 |
| Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.156Moises Itauma vs. Filip Hrgovic
- +$20.00at 0.750Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$8.83at 0.977SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day?
- +$5.00at 0.500Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May?
- +$3.65at 0.972Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 22:31 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0088232884 | $10.00 |
| 09-20 22:29 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in September? | BUY | 0.0356684263 | $1.00 |
| 08-29 21:49 | Moises Itauma vs. Filip Hrgovic | BUY | 0.1499999982 | $65.00 |
| 08-29 21:47 | Moises Itauma vs. Filip Hrgovic | BUY | 0.149999994 | $20.00 |
| 08-29 21:46 | Moises Itauma vs. Filip Hrgovic | BUY | 0.149999999 | $115.00 |
| 06-17 08:20 | Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? | BUY | 0.0899999736 | $3.00 |
| 06-12 18:06 | SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? | BUY | 0.9802546428 | $190.00 |
| 06-12 18:00 | SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? | BUY | 0.971053361 | $180.00 |
| 05-18 18:10 | NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 18? | BUY | 0.99 | $80.00 |
| 05-17 00:41 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $133.84 |
| 05-17 00:41 | Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $102.46 |
| 05-16 22:58 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $20.00 |
| 05-16 22:58 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.9843437701 | $30.00 |
| 05-11 22:29 | Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 05-11 20:30 | Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |