0x1863bc52061000750fb73d66d5a4169bafb41cc6
0x1863bc52061000750fb73d66d5a4169bafb41cc6
- Realised P&L
- $-43.54
- Volume
- $4.7k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $2.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ilhan Omar by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.655 | $1.77 | +$0.07 |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% in October? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.225 | $0.71 | −$0.14 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 4? · No | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.60 |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 4? · No | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.98at 0.422Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 3?
- +$10.98at 0.422Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 3?
- +$8.52at 0.392Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on October 3?
- +$8.12at 0.492Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on October 3?
- +$5.67at 0.432Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 12:33 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 4? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 10-04 12:33 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on October 4? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 10-04 00:51 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on October 4? | BUY | 0.45 | $2.25 |
| 10-04 00:51 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 4? | BUY | 0.42 | $4.20 |
| 10-04 00:51 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 4? | BUY | 0.4 | $7.60 |
| 10-04 00:51 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 4? | BUY | 0.44 | $4.40 |
| 10-03 13:01 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.01 | $7.85 |
| 10-03 06:48 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.001 | $3.10 |
| 10-03 00:52 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.41 | $7.79 |
| 10-03 00:52 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.45 | $7.65 |
| 10-03 00:11 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.382 | $7.64 |
| 10-03 00:11 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.49 | $7.84 |
| 10-03 00:11 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.41 | $7.79 |
| 10-03 00:11 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.48 | $7.68 |
| 10-03 00:11 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.36 | $7.92 |