farmyboi
0x1823757d22022f81a8fa1536d63101fe458884d8
- Realised P&L
- $613.7k
- Volume
- $2.13M
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $131.26
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar28.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.188 | 0.012 | $131.26 | −$1.9k |
| Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in first 100 days? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$451.96 |
| Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.199 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.8k |
| Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.4k |
| Will a Republican win New Jersey Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.7k |
| Will a Democrat win California Presidential Election? · No | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$260.78 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 1? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$425.96 |
| Will a Republican win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.206 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.7k |
| Will a Republican win California Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$619.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$629.3kat 0.281Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
- +$-207.72at 0.463Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$-1.0kat 0.390Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 13:34 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.2000864181 | $1000.00 |
| 06-16 13:33 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.1778703285 | $1000.00 |
| 03-01 05:06 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.315890219 | $125.34 |
| 03-01 05:05 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.3202206992 | $999.19 |
| 03-01 05:05 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.3252893319 | $991.29 |
| 03-01 03:50 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.3414362104 | $2.2k |
| 03-01 03:50 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.3507296788 | $1.3k |
| 03-01 03:08 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.394 | $2.2k |
| 03-01 03:07 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.39 | $3.4k |
| 03-01 03:06 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.388 | $856.22 |
| 03-01 03:06 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.387 | $216.52 |
| 03-01 03:05 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.386 | $656.20 |
| 03-01 03:05 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.384 | $6.70 |
| 02-28 13:51 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.4259981651 | $2.4k |
| 01-23 22:05 | Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in first 100 days? | BUY | 0.07 | $416.96 |