0x181e19dc8a1dedbbc0b8b5d6f4ff9125524499fd
0x181e19dc8a1dedbbc0b8b5d6f4ff9125524499fd
- Realised P&L
- $-3.23
- Volume
- $162.51
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $5.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $64 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.940 | $1.32 | +$0.32 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $370 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.955 | $1.24 | +$0.24 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $192.50 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.480 | 0.530 | $1.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.390 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.080 | $0.21 | −$0.79 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.060 | $0.18 | −$1.38 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 23? · Up | 0.650 | 0.085 | $0.13 | −$0.87 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.07at 0.480Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
- +$5.00at 0.500US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?
- +$2.54at 0.288Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$1.99at 0.720Will Electronic Arts (EA) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.63at 0.542Will CBRE Group (CBRE) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 07:57 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 23? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 23:51 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $192.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 15:46 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $370 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 07:33 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 23:29 | Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 15:28 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $64 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 07:17 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 06:12 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6099997255 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 22:11 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 11:02 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 01:03 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 19:03 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 23:46 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 15:40 | Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 07:36 | Will Warsh say "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |