Orzelki
0x1770eb4642616ce1e6dc563fa6ebdb1d4e72b3d9
- Realised P&L
- $34.04
- Volume
- $1.20M
- Markets traded
- 118
- Open portfolio
- $45.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded118
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on October 20? · No | 0.934 | 0.994 | $9.02 | +$0.54 |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.977 | 0.980 | $8.86 | +$0.02 |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.988 | 0.992 | $8.18 | +$0.03 |
| Exact Score: SSC Napoli 3 - 3 FK Bodø/Glimt? · No | 0.984 | 0.983 | $5.83 | −$0.01 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? · No | 0.985 | 1.000 | $5.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.954 | $4.70 | +$0.17 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.986 | 0.973 | $3.95 | −$0.05 |
| Dodgers vs. Pirates · Dodgers | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor? · Yes | 0.980 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$68.00 |
| Will Como win on 2025-10-19? · No | 0.714 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Trump resign today? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? · No | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$65.96at 0.940Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
- +$52.63at 0.950Will Solana hit $250 in March?
- +$35.62at 0.968Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025?
- +$33.33at 0.750Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18?
- +$25.00at 0.994Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 12:45 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on October 20? | BUY | 0.933999998 | $8.48 |
| 10-20 12:43 | Exact Score: SSC Napoli 3 - 3 FK Bodø/Glimt? | BUY | 0.9839999987 | $5.84 |
| 10-12 19:12 | Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9769999976 | $8.84 |
| 09-27 21:21 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on September 28? | BUY | 0.99 | $7.66 |
| 08-28 14:54 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? | BUY | 0.985059748 | $5.00 |
| 08-28 14:53 | Will "The Dog Stars" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 12m? | BUY | 0.9874819056 | $9.53 |
| 07-12 17:30 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999963 | $5.09 |
| 06-30 08:50 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 1? | BUY | 0.92 | $7.72 |
| 05-19 17:48 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY | 0.9489999769 | $20.00 |
| 04-21 21:45 | Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999919 | $4.53 |
| 04-21 21:44 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9769999983 | $5.32 |
| 04-08 08:34 | Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | BUY | 0.9909999998 | $6.40 |
| 04-08 08:32 | Will Brighton finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.43 |
| 03-20 19:48 | Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.9929999993 | $4.35 |
| 03-13 17:10 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.987999999 | $8.15 |