Seriip
0x1765c10c4393dc6648dd3f2d0a2c695dd649d450
- Realised P&L
- $293.12
- Volume
- $24.9k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $1.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31? · Yes | 0.443 | 0.345 | $381.49 | −$108.75 |
| Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? · Yes | 0.184 | 0.234 | $331.71 | +$71.98 |
| Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31? · Yes | 0.267 | 0.285 | $113.39 | +$7.34 |
| Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30? · Yes | 0.256 | 0.064 | $106.34 | −$319.37 |
| Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.245 | $74.64 | −$1.52 |
| Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31? · Yes | 0.221 | 0.185 | $28.93 | −$5.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$386.86at 0.333Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026?
- +$49.44at 0.533Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
- +$8.06at 0.106Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?
- +$-0.43at 0.286Will Russia capture Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026?
- +$-1.13at 0.750Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 17:23 | Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.2801266158 | $47.33 |
| 09-15 17:21 | Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0574833914 | $47.33 |
| 09-10 16:50 | Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $12.62 |
| 09-10 16:33 | Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $20.90 |
| 09-10 16:30 | Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $33.56 |
| 09-09 19:21 | Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | BUY | 0.2127692308 | $55.32 |
| 09-09 12:22 | Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 12:13 | Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.2565530799 | $58.72 |
| 09-09 11:51 | Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1522171544 | $192.23 |
| 09-08 11:55 | Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | BUY | 0.1445901768 | $40.46 |
| 09-08 11:54 | Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31? | SELL | 0.25 | $161.35 |
| 09-08 11:19 | Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $53.25 |
| 09-08 11:17 | Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31? | SELL | 0.26625 | $53.25 |
| 09-07 22:59 | Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | BUY | 0.2451651947 | $78.05 |
| 09-07 22:57 | Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31? | SELL | 0.2802721821 | $78.05 |